I recently responded to a social media post which asked why there is so much hate out in the social media world regarding rolling losing option positions. If you frequent any discussions about managing option trades, and someone discusses rolling a losing position, there will be some critic who comments to say that rolling options is horrible and locks in losses, and is a low probability trade, and basically is un-American. I sometimes get these kinds of responses myself, and if you read much of what I write, you know that I disagree with that. Rolling is a key part of many of my strategies including the rolling 7 DTE trade that I frequently trade. So, the following is my thoughts on rolling losing option positions.
As someone who rolls almost all my positions, win or lose, and often writes about it, my thought is that a lot of people that write negatively about rolling don’t really understand the benefits. It isn’t an issue that everybody should roll, or that nobody should, but more that it is a method that works well for a certain mindset. Some traders approach managing trades very differently and that’s great for them.
I think the issue is when the discussion comes to managing a losing position. There’s really three choices: hold, stop, or roll. A legitimate argument can be made for each approach, but I think the right answer comes down to the type of position that is in trouble, the trader’s view of the market probabilities looking forward, and personal preferences around risk and reward.
I roll my credit put spreads on SPX in virtually every situation. I want to avoid expiration drama, so I never hold to expiration. When I used stops in the past, it seemed like I got stopped out just as the market bottomed out and I found that frustrating. I now specifically seek out trades that accommodate rolling options and develop mechanical triggers on when and how I’ll roll a position.
For me the benefit of rolling a losing position is giving myself time and space to be right. I almost always collect a credit for a roll, so I’m paid to wait for a turnaround. Each roll improves the cost basis of my trade. When my position is being tested I try to roll both down and out for a credit, so that I don’t need a full recovery to come out with a profit. Since most of my positions are credit spreads, I do have an issue that if my position gets in the money, it is no longer able to roll for a credit, and I’m forced to pay a debit to stay in. Because my positions start at least an expected move away from the initial price, I rarely end up in the money paying a debit. I’ve found that with the trades I do, I collect credit 97-98% of the time, and the debits I pay have generally been about the same as the credit I get when I’m rolling a winning trade which happens much more often.
The big benefits I see from rolling credit spreads is that I keep time decay working for me 24/7. I don’t have to decide when to jump back in after being stopped out because I’m never out.
For those that say that rolling locks in a loss and puts you in a worse position, I understand that the act of rolling options, closing a losing trade and opening one is truly closing a losing trade. However, my new position is poised to earn all the loss back plus a profit beyond. Usually, when rolling a loser, the market is approaching an oversold situation and is increasingly likely to start back up. Since almost all my rolled positions are still out of the money, I usually still have positive expectancy and better than 50/50 odds of a profit. Market downturns are the best time to buy, so in many ways I’m forcing myself to buy the dip.
Rolling losing option positions does introduce a lot of volatility into a portfolio value. I get great returns through rolling, but my positions’ marked values go up and down more than many people can tolerate, and I understand. Every strategy for management has pros and cons, and some are no-goes for some traders. Each person has to find mechanics that match their tolerance for risk, and expectations for return.
It isn’t easy emotionally to roll in tough markets, but I don’t think it is any easier to take a loss when you are stopped out. I lost a lot just today, Nov 30, 2021, and did a number of rolls as part of my mechanics. However, I’ve been through this numerous times before, recovering fully each time, and built up cash reserves in good times, so that I’m ready for whatever the market is going to do.
Some types of trades just aren’t made for rolling options. For example I won’t roll a credit call spread that loses because I find they just compound losses as the market drifts higher more often than it falls, and it isn’t a fight I can win consistently. I don’t use rolls as much in individual stocks because moves can be extreme and last a long time. I don’t try to roll trades on expiration day because the numbers don’t work out. So I do have limits and don’t blindly roll every kind of trade. I find that many people critiquing rolling as a strategy are talking about one of these losing situations that even I won’t roll in.
I’ve had many people reach out to try to understand rolling options and from their questions I can see that it is a hard concept to grasp. I love it when the lightbulb comes on for someone, and it is also troubling when someone misses the point and drops a position, closing at the worst possible time. I usually get a few messages of a bad loss on days like last Friday or today, but I also get nice thank you notes from many more when the market goes up after a downturn and the person came out of a down market with a profit overall and their account at new highs.
I know my rolling approach isn’t for everyone and that’s okay. But it works for me. If it doesn’t work for you, then do what does work for you, and maybe learn a little more about rolling before you bad mouth it out of hand.
